2019 UAB Football Opponent Preview #1: Alabama State

Image result for alabama state football — Alabama State quarterback Darryl Pearson, Jr. throws a pass against Auburn in 2018
John Reed – USA TODAY Sports

Fall camp is starting soon, which means football season is close. There are only about four weeks left until the Green and Gold begin their title defense at Legion Field on August 29th. To prepare for the season, I’ll be writing previews of every opponent the Blazers will face over the next couple of weeks. At the end, I’ll publish the UAB preview I’ve been working on that goes through every player at every position on the roster.

One disclaimer: I’ll use a few advanced statistics in the rest of these previews to help get a clear picture of whatever team I’m writing about. Because most of the data needed to calculate those stats doesn’t exist for FCS teams, this article won’t have those statistics. Also, depth charts and highlights are less available for FCS teams, and it was sometimes hard to find much information about players.

ALABAMA STATE FACTS
Location: Montgomery, Alabama
Founded: 1867
Years playing football: 1901-present
Mascot: Hornets
Division: D1 FCS
Conference: SWAC, East Division
Coach: Donald Hill-Eley
Record last year: 4-7 (3-4 SWAC)
Picked 4th out of 5 in their division in the preseason SWAC poll

OFFENSE
Biggest loss: OL Tytus Howard, picked 23rd overall in 2019 NFL Draft
Points per game: 14.73
Passing yards per game: 161.45
Rushing yards per game: 108.0
Total yards per game: 269.5

Quarterback
ASU returns multiple QBs who saw playing time in 2018, but none of them are the main focus of the offseason. The Hornets are hoping that former Florida State Seminole Deondre Francois, confirmed to have visited Montgomery, becomes the new signal-caller. Francois, once considered a fringe Heisman candidate, was dismissed from the FSU program after being involved in a strange domestic abuse case, in which an allegation was levied against him, retracted, and re-retracted. Francois first stated he was walking on at FAU, but recently confirmed on his Instagram story that he would not become an Owl after all. The rumor mill has heated up since then, with Hampton and Alabama A&M being mentioned alongside ASU as candidates to win the services of the former Nole. If Francois does become a Hornet, Alabama State is getting a QB that has proven he can be successful at high levels, having thrown for 3350 yards and 20 TDs in 2016 with the Seminoles, and who should tear up the SWAC. In the context of this game, it’ll be hard to say how the UAB defense will approach a player this highly-touted. Francois can definitely burn the Blazers, but he’ll be surrounded by much less raw talent at WR and OL and will be re-adjusting to being the unquestioned starter. Of course, it’s no guarantee that Francois will even come to Montgomery, and if that’s the case, the Hornets will probably turn to either Darryl Pearson, Jr., who was a preseason 2nd-team All-SWAC selection last year, or KHA’Darris Davis, who took over for Pearson about halfway through the season. Pearson is a pocket passer who threw for 610 yards in 7 games, and Davis is more of a dual threat, having run for 240 (sacks removed) yards and passed for 951 yards in 9 games. Whoever starts under center will need to fix the anemic offense of last year, which only averaged about two touchdowns per game.

Running back
The Hornets return versatile RB Ezra Gray, who almost returned a kickoff for a TD last year against Auburn and finished with over 1,000 all-purpose yards, 384 of those being rushing. Gray was named first-team All-SWAC before this season and is one of the best kick returners in FCS. Along with Gray, the Hornets have Talesin Farmer, who rushed for 202 yards last year, and George Golden, who ran for nearly 500 yards in 2017 before missing last season with an injury. USF transfer Duran Bell, who gained 148 yards on the ground in 2018 with the Bulls, is also an option if he’s eligible. Although there is experience, the ASU rushing attack wasn’t incredibly prolific last year, with no RB going for over 400 yards on the season and the offense as a whole only scoring 7 touchdowns on the ground.

Receivers
Alabama State’s paltry passing attack (161.5 ypg would be 114th in 2018 FBS) returns most of its producers. Deep threat Tyrek Allen, who averaged almost 30 YPC last year, is the team’s most productive WR, while Joe Williams, Wallace Corker, and Jeremiah Hixon are the most targeted. Like the other facets of the offense, the passing game has much room for improvement. The aforementioned wideouts will need to combine with Francois/Pearson/Davis to make the air attack a viable option.

O-line
The Alabama State offensive line allowed 25 sacks last year, which comes out to an average of about 2.27 per game. That isn’t terrible, but it’s not something to be bragging about (for comparison, that number would rank 68th in the 2018 FBS). Hornet running backs rushed for about 108 yards per game behind this line last year, another mediocre number. The good news is 4 out of 5 starters return from that ok-but-not-great unit. The bad news is that the loss was Tytus Howard, the highest drafted Hornet ever. Howard was first-team all-SWAC last year and is now a member of the Houston Texans after being drafted in the first round of the ’19 Draft. Again, although the line is experienced, the product wasn’t outstanding last year. Plus, the best member (by far; no other Hornet offensive lineman has been selected to any all-SWAC teams) of the group is gone.

DEFENSE
Biggest loss: DB Kurron Ramsey, considered NFL prospect
Points allowed per game: 37.00
Passing yards allowed per game: 180.00
Rushing yards allowed per game: 270.8
Total yards allowed per game: 450.8

D-line:
The ASU defensive line was terrible last year, allowing 270 rushing yards per game and barely reaching double digit sacks. The best member of the group returns in Christian Clark, picked preseason first-team All-SWAC this year. Clark led the D-line in tackles with 53, 5 of them for loss. There are also multiple experienced players who contributed last year coming back, but I’m not sure that’s a good thing with the performance of this unit in 2018. The bottom line is that if players can’t step up around Clark, Spencer Brown and the rest of the running backs ASU faces are going to feast.

Linebacker:
Alabama State returns Darron Johnson, a senior LB who was selected along with Clark to the preseason first-team All-SWAC. Johnson finished last year with 2 interceptions, 78 tackles, and 5 tackles for loss. This is a slightly less experienced group, and Johnson will need to get his younger teammates to step up. Like the defensive line, if this unit doesn’t provide more run support, there is no chance ASU will be winning this game or many others.

Defensive back:
The safeties and corners were two of the Hornets’ stronger units last year, allowing 180 passing yards per game. There is a decent amount of experience returning, and this group should continue to be solid. The one downside is that State loses a star NFL prospect in S Kurron Ramsey. Ramsey was a shutdown player last year with 74 tackles. Joshua Hill returns, though, and he’s another star in the defensive backfield. Hill intercepted 2 passes and had 3 pass breakups last season, and should only continue to develop.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker
The only placekicker on ASU’s roster is Hunter Hanson, who hit a not-great 8 of 16 field goals last year, with his long being 39. Hanson only kicked 6 touchbacks on 34 kickoffs (for comparison 71 of Nick Vogel’s 80 kickoffs went for touchbacks last year) and kicked one out of bounds.

Punter
Punter Anthony Craven returns this year, and he makes this position one of the strongest on ASU’s team. Last year he averaged a solid 42.7 yards per punt with an 80-yarder against South Alabama. Only one of his punts was blocked, and it was against Auburn. Craven was also named to the FCS Punter of the Year watchlist before this season.

Punt returner
Joshua Hill, who handled most of the punt returning duties for the Hornets in 2018, is back for another season. He had an OK year, averaging 14.25 yards per return with a long of 55 and no touchdowns, but I wouldn’t call this position a strength.

Kick returner
As stated before, Ezra Gray is one of the best kick returners in both the SWAC and the FCS. He was named to the preseason first-team All-SWAC this year, and returned 26 kicks for 608 yards with an average of 23.4. Gray’s longest was 72 yards, and he had one against Auburn that might have been 80 if it wasn’t called back.

Why UAB will win: UAB has high-major level talent at multiple positions and should easily outclass the Hornets.

Why Alabama State will win: Ezra Gray will get loose on multiple kickoff returns and runs, Tyrek Allen will burn the Blazer CBs, and the Hornet defensive line somehow manages to get to Tyler Johnston multiple times per drive.

Bottom line: This is a game that UAB should win without breaking a sweat. Although ASU has plenty of talented players, the fact remains that the Hornets are a mediocre-at-best FCS team and the Blazers are the defending Conference USA champions. Even if State trots out an ACC-caliber quarterback, the defense should have no problems and the offense should roll. If that’s not the case, we might be in for a long season.

Predicted final score: UAB 55, Alabama State 6

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Quick Look at the 19-20 Football Schedule

Before the summer, I wanted to take a very quick look at who is on the slate for football next year. This is not a detailed preview at all, and there will be much more in-depth ones to come before August 29th, but it contains a couple of interesting things to think about.

VS Alabama State – Thursday, August 29th
AT Akron – Saturday, September 7th
BYE
VS South Alabama – Saturday, September 21st
AT WKU – Saturday, September 28th
VS Rice – Saturday, October 5th
AT UTSA – Saturday, October 12th
Homecoming VS Old Dominion – Saturday, October 19th
BYE
AT Tennessee – Saturday, November 2nd
AT Southern Miss – Saturday, November 9th
VS UTEP – Saturday, November 16th
VS LA Tech – Saturday, November 23rd
AT North Texas – Saturday, November 30th

New interdivisional opponents
The last two years have featured the same two opponents from the East Division, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. This year, the rotation switches and the Blazers take on Western Kentucky and Old Dominion instead. In terms of game difficulty, the new rivals probably don’t change much. Old Dominion is going to be in a spot much the same as they were last year, and is comparable to Charlotte in terms of talent level. Western is better, and should be closer to .500 this season. They are still not back to the elite level they were in 2016, though, and the contest against the Hilltoppers should be a close one.

Possible UAB records
Spencer Brown – All-time UAB rushing yards leader, all-time UAB rushing touchdowns leader, 3,000 career rushing yards
If Spencer recovers well from the offseason surgery that kept him out of the spring game, he could possibly break the yards record before conference play begins. Brown is currently 3rd on the career rushing list with 2,556 yards, behind only Joe Webb (2,774 yards) and Pat Green (2,817 yards). Spencer could run for over 100 against ASU and Akron’s weak run defenses before going up against a tougher challenge in USA. Even if he doesn’t recover quickly enough to break it before C-USA play, we will without a doubt see Brown become the all-time rushing yards leader this season. As for the rushing TD record, Spencer sits at 26 right now. He needs 10 to pass Green’s 35, and it’s a safe bet to say he’s going to break that one too, as he averaged 1.33 TDs per game last year.

Most interesting games
vs South Alabama, September 21 – Although it will be somewhat interesting to see how many fans USA brings, the main attraction in this game should be Spencer Brown breaking the UAB all-time rushing yards record. As mentioned above, the first two teams we play don’t have great defenses, and Spencer should amass at least 200 yards, barring complications from surgery. Clark and Vincent will feed him in this game if he’s close, trying to get him to break the record at Legion. It’ll be an emotional moment if we can see Spencer, one of the biggest symbols of the Return, break the record at home, five years after the team was supposedly gone for good. South Alabama will also be better than Akron and ASU, and the game will give a good indication of how good UAB will be this year.

at Tennessee, November 2nd – Another year, another mediocre SEC team. I don’t know if this one will be more like Florida, where we were crushed all-around, or like Texas A&M, where we put up a valiant fight in front of almost 100,000 Aggie fans. Tennessee is not expected to be outstanding, and I think this could possibly be a game that sneaks up on them. Their defense was significantly worse than ours last season, and if that doesn’t change, I can see Brown having a big game. But like always, resting and preparing for the home stretch is the greatest priority in games like these. Either way, it gets the school money, and it’s fun to see the Blazers on national TV.

vs LA Tech, November 23 – I think the game against Tech has become our main football rivalry over the past couple of years, even surpassing Southern Miss. It’s always fun to get into Twitter arguments with them, which were escalated recently when CBs Amik Robertson and Brontae Harris debated over who was better. This game is always circled on the calendar, but even more so now that our All-America caliber players have a budding rivalry.

Spring Football Roster Breakdown and Surprises

The spring football roster was released recently, and it contains a lot that was expected, along with some surprising position changes and reshuffles.

Running back rotation full of new faces
The rotation of backs heavily vaunted in last year’s preseason has been cut down to just one of the original members. Obviously that member is star Spencer Brown, who returns for his junior year with a chance to cement his legacy as one of the greatest Blazers ever and break the remaining school rushing records. In an interesting move, former backfield mate Jarrion Street have been moved to safety. It may be because of the hype about redshirt freshman Werlean Pollock, an agile, speedy runner who had an offer from UCF. Hopefully he can reduce Spencer’s overall workload, along with the returning Lucious Stanley and former wide receiver/special teams player Jonathan Haden, who is experimenting at RB. The other listed running backs are Rashad Mosley, Larry Wooden, and Isaiah Montgomery. I can’t find much on Mosley, but Wooden is an Arkansas State transfer who was rated the 118th best RB in the country when he was originally recruited, and Montgomery transferred from a NAIA school. Their role will be similar to those of Donnie Lee (graduated), Carlos Stephens (transferred), and James Noble III (graduated) the last couple of years.
The RB depth chart will probably look something like:
Spencer Brown
Lucious Stanley/Werlean Pollock
Larry Wooden
Isaiah Montgomery
Rashad Mosley
although that could change as we learn more about the newcomers.

QBs led by Johnston
It started in Legion against UTSA last year, but with the graduation of AJ Erdely, this is completely TJ3’s team for the first time in his career. With multiple promising performances coming in the last half of 2018, it looks like the QB play will not take much of a hit. Johnston is more of a known commodity, in contrast to his backups, who are X-factors. Behind him on the depth chart will be Dylan Hopkins from Maryville, Bryson Lucero (carved up Hoover on national television), and David Hendrick. Hopkins was the 54th best quarterback in the country and the 2nd best dual threat QB in Tennessee, so he might continue the trend of UAB QBs running well. Lucero, on the other hand, is a three star from powerhouse IMG that put on a show in front of the whole country. Lucero is more of a throwing quarterback compared to Hopkins and Erdely. Because of Johnston’s strong play, Hopkins and Lucero will have to show out to win the starting role this season, but last season showed us that anything can happen.

Offensive line takes hit
The fantastic offensive line from last season lost four of its members, along with its coach. First-team all-conference lineman Justice Powers graduated, along with second-team members Rishard Cook, Malique Johnson, and James Davis. O-line coach Jody Wright left for the Browns as well, and was replaced by Richard Owens. The only returning starter is center Lee Dufour, who is a solid anchor. Dufour said about the line in Evan Dudley’s AL.com article:

“Obviously, we lost four starting guys, a lot of those guys with a chance at the next level, but the guys who came in behind them all got a lot of experience last year. For example, I broke my arm in the middle of the season and Greg Fecanin came in right behind me, didn’t miss a beat and had a great year. Andrew Smith had a great year, David Galten has come in and got a lot of reps. Guys that are coming in now may not have started last year but they all definitely got some valuable reps. We’ve been communicating with each other, and obviously our communication needs to improve a little bit, but for starting off a foundation and starting off on day one, I think we did pretty good.”

Dufour sounds confident about the line, which is good, but no one really knows how it will perform this year with 4 2-year starters gone. Almost everything, including the depth chart, will be unknown until later in the summer. The closest thing to a guarantee we have is that Dufour will start and the aforementioned Fecanin, Smith, and Galten will get playing time as well.

Top five wide receivers gone
As with the offensive line, the starting WR unit has graduated. With Andre Wilson, Xavier Ubosi, Collin Lisa, and Kailon Carter gone, new faces are going to have to step up to replace them. One of those new faces will be Myron Mitchell, a three-star recruit from Butler CC. Mitchell has showcased his extensive abilities as a wideout, picking up an offer from Texas Tech before going to community college. He is the most likely player to take on the role as main receiver, but that title could go to any of the following:
Austin Watkins, solid receiver in JUCO
Kendall Parham, agile wideout that had a solid season last year
Sederian Copeland, back at the WR position and healthy from injuries
Demetrius Davis, former 3-star with offers from Mississippi State and Indiana
Kevin Davis
Stone Dorough
Conner Howell, had FCS offers
Alec Marsch, Homewood product
Tyler Pye
Tevin Sharpe
Xavier Coleman
TD Marshall, Samford transfer, played QB in high school

I don’t think we’ll know much about this offense as a whole until the season begins. So much depends on if Johnston keeps up his production, if the new WRs produce, if the new offensive line is solid, and if Spencer Brown is his same old self.

Defensive line and linebackers still look to be intimidating
It is no secret that the UAB defense was one of the best in the country last year, and they want to keep that trend going in year three of The Return. That task will be difficult with the loss of multiple key defenders, but the Blazers retain some of their core pieces. Garrett Marino, Thomas Johnston (who is looking to take a step up this year), Kris Moll, Dy’jonn Turner, Fitz Mofor (someone the team will need to replicate the leadership of Broderick Thomas and AJ Erdely), and others return for the Blazers. Not only that, but some very exciting new pieces are being thrown into the mix as well, including some recruits that UAB would never dream of getting 7 years ago. Those include LBs Deshaun Oliver, Jr. and Jalen Rayam, two hyped up player being recruited by Power 5 schools. If they can come in and replace major contributors such as Chris Woolbright, the defense is in good shape. On the defensive line side of things, former Nebraska commit Tony Fair, Fish McWilliams, and Michael Fairbanks will cause havoc and help replace players like Anthony Rush. If all of the new pieces can step in immediately, then the D-line and linebackers should have no problems getting back to their level last year.

Exciting talent in defensive backfield
Like many other units on this team, the safeties and corners lost a lot of production, but have freshman and sophomores that are ready to take over. D.A. Williams finished his college career in a bad way with a scary neck injury, while Duke Culver, Broderick Thomas, and Mar’Sean Diggs also graduated. That clears the way for Starling Thomas V and CD Daniels to pave their own paths. Both had high-major offers and have shown promise in the little playing time they have had. The Miller twins, Damien and Damon, will also get opportunities this season. Damien especially is a player I am excited to see, simply because of his special teams talents.

I think every unit on the team will depend on the ability of players that are not very experienced in game situations to come in and play at a high level immediately. So many players were lost that it is very hard to project the depth charts and production that each unit will produce this upcoming season. It’ll be up to all the players mentioned above plus any I missed to defend the title.